Q+A with Digi: The trend analysis economy

Cultural strategist. Trend forecaster. Industry commentator. Future thinker. The world of trend forecasting is no longer defined by a mono-identity of futurists, but is instead shifting into a bigger playground of creators, collectives and agencies alike. Isabel Slone and Kevin LeBlanc from Elle reached out to The Digital Fairy for our thoughts on the future of forecasting – and how internet culture is shaping its direction:

Elle: How did The Digital Fairy’s journey begin? How long has The Digital Fairy forecasted trends?

Digi: Let’s begin with a history of the company (so far): we first launched in 2012, with a home base in East London headed by a female-first, youth team of Gen Z and millennials. In 2014, WGSN described us as “an example of DIY digital entrepreneurialism” – illustrating how “youth attitudes continue to shift towards a DIY mentality, if they don’t like the way something is done or something is being done they’ll do it themselves”. 

When we started (2017), forecasting was very esoteric. Forecasters were really gate-keeping things like colours and we just found that so funny. The misconceptions around the new generation were wild and we knew brands needed to get closer to the people. We were a young team that was really curious and opinionated; in fact, our work was often reported on by WGSN, LS:N, etc., so we knew we had loads of insight to leverage. We started doing a ‘by youth, for youth’ series of trend reports specifically inspired by youth and internet culture. Our methodology was simple, non-traditional and often intuitive. We prioritised consumers over clients, the format was always multimedia and we published it on Instagram stories for free which was the start of trend forecasting actually being democratised. We would also make them interactive to make our community’s voices feel really included in the conversation using native functions like polls and question boxes. 

In 2018, we launched a report specifically addressing Gen Z misconceptions (WTF is a Gen Z?) and generation-based marketing. Our founder Eve was invited to Cannes to talk about it; the contents of this report proved a huge success. Loads of brands picked up on it and was a huge source of new business. It was clear we really represented the audience that they were trying to engage. To this day, global brands will come to us saying, “We’ve read that report”. We now service brands like Hinge and Nike providing global insight into youth audiences, and this way of working has completely transformed our business. 

Elle: When did you start posting trend forecasts on TikTok?

Digi: We posted our first six trend analysis TikToks in June 2021, and each video in the batch landed on the For You Page and received hundreds of thousands of views respectively. We then started regularly posting trend analyses and forecasts on TikTok from August 2021.

Elle: Traditionally trend forecasting is work that’s done in private, behind the scenes, and corporate clients pay huge amounts of money for these insights. But more and more, we’re seeing trend forecasters do their work for a large public audience on TikTok. Why have so many trend forecasters taken to TikTok to ply their trade – especially if they already have full-time jobs? And do corporate clients look down upon trend forecasters essentially giving those insights away for free?

Digi: Fashion is an industry that’s notoriously hard to break into and difficult to receive fair pay in, even if you do get your foot in the door. TikTok offers a direct DIY avenue for trend analysts and forecasters, self-taught or professionally trained, to share their insights and perspectives, unfettered by the historical gatekeeping of the fashion industry and empowered by the algorithm’s capacity to show their content to millions of people. Successful TikTok trend analysts can leverage their platforms and followings  into commercial and career-building opportunities, whether that’s transitioning into traditional fashion writing and journalism, or branching off into more monetisable creator opportunities like Substack and YouTube. TikTok trend analysts are already becoming influencers in their own right – receiving invitations from respected designers to attend fashion week shows, and even being dressed head-to-toe by designers to do so.

More and more, fashion is following a bottom-to-top model, with designers and brands looking to TikTok fashion for inspiration, rather than the other way around. TikTok trend analysts are in tune with and extremely close to the fashion cycle on the app, and elsewhere on social media, and thus are able to quickly and intuitively provide insight on super-niche trends as they’re happening – much faster and more publicly than a traditional trend forecaster would be able to. There is still space for traditional trend forecasting, though – clients often come to us for nuanced and customised insights, which are contextualised in relation to a specific project or goal.

Elle: Beginning with indie sleaze and wired headphones, it seems as if trend forecasting content has started to actually drive trends rather than just predict them. What do you make of this? Is the popularity of trend forecasting content generating trends that don’t actually exist? 

Digi: I don’t think trend forecasting content is creating trends that don’t already observably exist, but it certainly encourages amplified discussion of burgeoning trends, which may encourage quicker adoption. Hopefully discussion of the accelerated trend cycle can add value by contextualising the clothes we wear. An off-trend garment can seem much more “timeless” and worthy of holding onto when you learn how and why it’s shown up at different times in fashion history, and that, of course, even the most out-of-fashion styles come back eventually.

Elle: What do you make of the legion of imitators who are now creating trend forecasting content – most of whom actually have zero professional credentials as trend forecasters? Why does it seem like everyone wants to be a trend forecaster these days? Do you feel like their faux-authoritative voice diminishes your actual expertise? Or is imitation the sincerest form of flattery and their content only makes your own all the more popular/valuable?

Digi: Trends are trending. The boundaries of possibility have expanded which has disrupted traditional forecasting methods. The pace of trend cycles and cultural fluctuation mean that foresight is no longer in the hands of futurists, everyone can have it. Culture commentary and trend spotting has been prevalent amongst the internet generation from zine culture to fashion blogging and Reddit threads. 

The new gen are constantly navigating mistruths and division from the highest powers. Naturally, they are more curious, critical and challenging. What is also different to previous generations is their access to data, evidence and more specialist education. Combined, it’s a recipe for the straight-talking analysis and foresight we see today. We’re not threatened at all, it’s incredibly important that the conversation of the future is democratised and accessible. It becomes more real and less speculative. 

Elle: Why have trend forecasting videos become such a cottage industry? Why do you think they’ve taken off to become so popular in this way?

Digi: We live in a hyper-visual world – we’re constantly looking at images of other people, and what they’re wearing, on social media. Many of us encounter masses of fit pics, OOTDs, and niche aesthetics daily, but these images are often completely de-contextualised, especially within the moodboard economy that thrives on TikTok, Pinterest, and Instagram. For example, last year we made a TikTok analysing the history and contemporary appeal of a style of shirt often worn by Twilight’s Bella Swann – a simple empire waist or babydoll top by way of the 2000s. I was inspired to make this specific TikTok after reading through comments reacting to “Bella Swan-inspired” TikTok OOTDs, and observing that lots of people wanted to try out this style but didn’t even know what this kind of shirt is called. We are so inundated by this kind of de-contextualised, fashion-first imagery, and people appreciate the layer of depth and understanding that insight-driven trend forecasting can give them.

I also think trend forecasting videos encourage a certain “reactiveness”, that then encourages boosted engagement and reach, and thus overall popularity. The trend cycle is so accelerated that we could make a TikTok tomorrow forecasting the impending ‘2016 aesthetic revival’ in earnest with evidence to substantiate the claim. But no matter how much evidence we provide, there will still be comments expressing shock that an “era” so recent could even be revived, boosting the video’s engagement.

Read the full article by Isabel Slone and Kevin LeBlanc here. 

✨ Contributing Fairies

• Eve Lee, Founder
• Biz Sherbert, Culture Editor 

✨ Digi Reading Recs

• Fashion Trend Forecasters are Calling the Shots (The Zoe Report, 2022) 
• How TikTok is influencing the next generation of fashion’s trend forecasters (Input Mag, 2022)

For more content like this, explore the rest of the Digiverse, or connect with us on TikTok or Instagram. If you’re a brand or business and want to inspire your audience in innovative ways, reach out to our strategic & creative lab eve@thedigitalfairy.co.uk